<![CDATA[ Welcome to Futurcast
FUTURCAST: Enterprise Operational Forecasting Software </span><br>
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<p class="textsectiontitle">The Optimum Operational Forecasting Solution</p>
<p class="text"><strong>FUTURCAST</strong> is the sales forecasting and assumption reporting software geared towards managing value of an organization. As displayed in Figure 1, it is designed to provide a unique, transparent forecast, to accurately drive product provisioning and determine financial expectations. </p>
<p align="center" ><img src="../images/graph2.jpg" alt="Managing value with FUTURCAST" width="600" height="385"></p>
<p align="left" class="text">An artificial intelligent system, It is based on a tradition of academic knowledge. Its statistical engine is founded on data filtering and pattern recognition principles. It has evolved from a PC application package to a fully integrated enterprise solution making use of the Oracle database environment for assumption-based forecasting. <strong>FUTURCAST</strong> has been continuously upgraded over the last 25 years in close collaboration with world leaders in the life sciences, consumer package goods, and high technology industries.</p>
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<p class="textsectiontitle">Key Characteristics of the FUTURCAST Forecasting Process and System</p>
<p class="text">Figure 2 provides an information flow diagram presenting the <strong>FUTURCAST</strong> Forecasting Process and its components. In Figure 2, we see that <strong>FUTURCAST</strong> forecast activities are not performed in isolation of the ERP solution. New data are required on a periodical basis (daily, weekly, or monthly) and forecasts need to be transferred in order to become the driving inputs to manufacturing, budgeting and other planning activities.</p>
<p align="center" ><img src="../images/bubblegraph.jpg" alt="The FUTURCAST Forecasting Process" width="600" height="387"></p>
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<p class="text">The four key characteristics of the FUTURCAST forecasting process and system are:</p>
<p class="textsmalltitle">Marketing Led Assumption/Event-Based Forecasts</p>
<p class="text"><strong> FUTURCAST</strong>’s principal objective is to provide management with fact-based information to improve planning accuracy. Senior managers are eager to find out what happens to product sales at various locations, countries and markets in order to better assess underlying risks and opportunities. They wish to learn the reasons behind the forecasts and their impact on the future growth of product sales.</p>
<p class="text"><strong>FUTURCAST</strong> delivers, through standard and custom designed web-enabled tools, the sales demand forecast and the associated market driven assumptions. It offers to marketing and sales managers the ability to elaborate, from a unique planning base, the sales, financial, supply chain and strategic plans; each plan representing a different set of assumptions and/or impacts. The assumption/event database stores, in a structured way, the explanations on the key forecast changes for all core products as they relate to the different plans. Organizations can therefore gain a more in-depth understanding of their past performance and projected future growth. </p>
<p class="textsmalltitleturq">Expert Forecasting Engine</p>
<p class="text">The forecasting engine is the motor of a forecasting system. Its main purpose is to generate the planning base forecast from the analysis of past historical data. The planning base is the benchmark or point of reference from which all forecast modifications are made. The more accurate the planning base, the fewer manual overrides are required to correct it. </p>
<p class="text">Five dimensions can be used to rate the performance of a forecast engine. They are: </p>
<table width="345" border="1" align="center" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" bordercolor="#37004A">
<tr>
<td width="24" align="center" class="textsmalltitleturq">1.</td>
<td width="98" class="text"><span class="texttitle">T</span>ype</td>
<td width="212" class="textsmalltitleturq">objective vs. subjective</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" class="textsmalltitleturq">2.</td>
<td class="text"><span class="texttitle">H</span>orsepower</td>
<td class="textsmalltitleturq">statistical vs. non-statistical</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" class="textsmalltitleturq">3.</td>
<td class="text"><span class="texttitle">C</span>lass</td>
<td class="textsmalltitleturq"><p>extrapolative vs. causal</p> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" class="textsmalltitleturq">4.</td>
<td class="text"><span class="texttitle">M</span>ethod</td>
<td class="textsmalltitleturq">single vs. multiple</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" class="textsmalltitleturq">5.</td>
<td class="text"><span class="texttitle">S</span>election</td>
<td class="textsmalltitleturq">best fit vs. expert system</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p class="text"><strong>FUTURCAST</strong>’s engine attains the highest <strong>THCMS</strong> rating. It is classified as <em>objective</em>,<em> statistical</em> and <em>extrapolative</em>; it uses<em> multiple methods</em> and incorporates an<em> expert system</em> selection process. By definition, an expert system will reproduce how a person with great knowledge and skills in statistical forecasting would go about making his decision as to which method to use. An expert will first look at the data after having filtered outliers, then identify the first observation to be used, and depending on the trend-cycle pattern visually observed, it will then choose among a small select set of methods the most appropriate one to apply. This process corresponds to the automatic expert system which has been refined over the last 20 years and is incorporated in the <strong>FUTURCAST</strong> multiple method forecast engine.<br>
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<p class="textsmalltitle">Bird's Eye View Executive Analysis and Enterprise Application Integration</p>
<p class="text">Reporting is an essential function of a forecasting system. The purpose is to deliver to senior managers, a “bird’s eye view” of business performances for both historical and forecast data and to provide drill-down and slice-and-dice functionalities to identify and assess “best” and “worst” performances, risks and opportunities.</p>
<p class="text"><strong>FUTURCAST</strong> EASY on the Web OLAP reporting tool allows to easily query the database, slice-and-dice, drill down or up, and produce “on the go,” top-line macro, detailed micro, budget gap, year-to-date performance, perspective, and price/volume/exchange rate reports and analyses. <br>
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<strong>FUTURCAST</strong> Oracle nCUBE makes easily accessible to the enterprise reporting platform all forecast and assumption data. It delivers the capability to perform custom analysis of forecasting and assumption data from any point of view and to integrate and compare this information with other internal or external data sources. The nCUBE archives all previous forecast submissions, stores all the forecasting and assumption data at the lowest granularity for all dimensions, and contains consolidated data across pre-configured dimensions. Business intelligence reporting tools of choice, including but not limited to Cognos, SAP BW, Business Objects or TM1 can easily connect to the nCUBE and report data from them.</span><br>
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<p class="textsmalltitle">On-going Accuracy Monitoring</p>
<p class="text">The <strong>FUTURCAST</strong>’s method of monitoring accuracy represents the evaluation function of the system. It consists of several user-customized and pre-defined reports computing key performance process indicators. Its purpose is to measure forecast accuracy and stability and to provide, to the owners of the forecast, the necessary feedback for assessing and reviewing their future assumptions.</p>
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<p class="textsectiontitle">FUTURCAST Advantages<br>
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<p class="text"><strong>FUTURCAST</strong> delivers:</p>
<ul>
<li class="check">The framework and standard tool to plan volumes, prepare annual budgets and revisions, while keeping in line with the annual strategic planning exercise.<br>
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<li class="check">The explanation and rationale of the forecast to all stakeholders through marketing assumptions.<br>
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<li class="check">An audit trail of how the forecast was built to help manage change and assess return on investments.<br>
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<li class="check"><span class="check">Forecasts that are accurate, stable and transparent to all, covering the short, medium and long term planning horizons.</span></span></li>
</ul>
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<p class="textsectiontitle">FUTURCAST Business Analysis Solutions</p>
<p class="text">To improve planning accuracy, <strong>FUTURCAST</strong> business analysis solutions rely on the most commercially sound technology platforms and employ market forecasting and planning methodologies that are grounded in proven academic principles. With more than 20 years of recognized international forecasting experience and expertise in the life sciences and other industries, you can rest assured that <strong>FUTURCAST</strong>’s risk-free solutions will exceed your expectations, on time and within budget.</p>
<p class="text">“Global” in nature, these solutions think global while acting on the local forecasting needs. This ability to configure the client’s applications in line with the characteristics of local market dynamics and the available information data is one of the key success factors in rolling out globally a forecasting solution. As a result, the reliance and need for Excel spreadsheets are significantly reduced.</p>
<p class="text"> These custom configured enterprise solutions may be grouped into 2 methodological classes:</p>
<ul>
<li class="cubelist"><strong>Product Forecasting</strong><br>
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</li>
<li class="cubelist"><span class="cubelist"><strong>Total Market Forecasting</strong></span></li>
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<p class="textsectiontitle"><a name="Colaborativeandeventbasedforecasting"></a>Product Forecasting Solutions </p>
<p class="text">By definition, a product forecasting solution pre-supposes that products evolve in an open, undefined market space. Assumptions, events or forecast adjustments are therefore applied independently of their impact on the market. Market growth is therefore unrestricted.</p>
<p><span class="text">Three types of solutions may be configured depending on completeness and forecast horizons.</span><br>
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<p class="textsectionsubtitle">FUTURCAST Assumption-based Forecasting Solution</p>
<p><img src="../images/3arrows.jpg" alt="FUTURCAST Assumption-based Forecasting Solution" width="570" height="96"></p>
<p class="text"><strong>FUTURCAST</strong> Assumption-based forecasting offers the technology and Oracle infrastructure to harmonize the various operational forecasting activities and databases into a single environment. It is the ultimate of product forecasting solutions. For an organization, it provides a common database and transparent forecasting process driving both operations and budgeting functions for the short and long term. Moreover, it lays the foundation to integrate new product and in-line product forecasting within the same platform. The methodology truly delivers an up to 72 month <strong>“one number” </strong>forecast.</p>
<p class="text">This new and proven methodology has been developed in close collaboration with global leaders in the healthcare industry. These companies are characterized by long production lead-times for the active ingredients of the medicinal products and a global manufacturing structure with highly efficient single-product factories producing for a global demand.</p>
<p class="text">Simply speaking, assumption-based forecasting focuses on explaining the sales growth of a product through a structured system of qualitative reasoning. It is a structured approach to classifying quantitative impacts on a historical trend and the qualitative chain of reasoning behind the impacts.</p>
<p class="text"> The <strong>FUTURCAST</strong> Assumption-based forecasting methodology forces the review of assumptions on an on-going basis and is technically built on three components which are:</p>
<ol>
<li class="text">A single structured set of assumptions universally applied.<br>
</li>
<li class="text">The definition of the trend line as the planning base, which is fixed in units and remains unchanged over the forecast horizon until it is reviewed at a “deep dive” planning exercise (at least once a year).<br>
</li>
<li class="text">A market signal labeled the <strong>FUTURCAST</strong> reference that is statistically re-computed monthly and based on the updated historical sales.</li>
</ol>
<p align="center"><img src="../images/graph1.jpg" alt="Assumption-Based Forecasting" width="654" height="322"></p>
<p class="text">As illustrated in Figure 3, Assumption-based forecasting defines the final demand forecast as the sum of the fixed planning base and the structured assumptions. Because of its principal focus on the consolidation of the reasons behind the forecast, senior managers have turned to this solution since the explanations of what may happen strongly influence capacity planning accuracy and investment decisions.</p>
<p class="textsectionsubtitle">FUTURCAST Special Events and Actions Forecasting Solutions </p>
<p><img src="../images/arrowshortterm.jpg" alt="Short Term" width="194" height="96"></p>
<p class="text">Special Events and Actions forecasting focuses on the short term. Often, statistical forecasting methodologies ignore a number of factors which might impact the short term product sales of a company. For instance, when a company launches a promotional campaign for one of its products, the sales will undoubtedly be above average for the month(s) during the campaign and most likely fall below average for the months that follow, before returning back to an average level. The same is true if there are temporary reductions or increases in prices, advertising campaigns, and other special events or actions taken by a company.</p>
<p class="text">The <strong>FUTURCAST</strong> Special Events and Actions solution recognizes the importance and uniqueness of such events and actions. </p>
<p class="text">This solution:</p>
<ul>
<li class="check">Keeps a log of special events or actions and their projected impact.<br>
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</li>
<li class="check">Automatically filters the impact of past events and actions. This step avoids having to manually adjust historical data.<br>
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</li>
<li class="check">Focuses on the impact of future events and actions.<br>
</li>
</ul>
<p class="text">Special Events and Actions forecasting is particularly well-suited for fast moving consumer packaged goods companies. In such companies, having the “right” products at the “right” time is of critical importance. Special Events and Actions forecasting managed by key account managers delivers the right solution for short term forecasting of promotionally driven products.<br>
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<p class="text"><span class="textsectionsubtitle">FUTURCAST Collaborative Forecasting Solutions</span> <br>
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<p><img src="../images/arrownearterm.jpg" alt="Near Term" width="194" height="96"></p>
<p class="text">Collaborative forecasting solutions are best suited for companies selling products that are driven by a remote sales force. For such companies, it is of critical importance to capture the changes that may affect product sales in the near term (the next 6 months) from sources that are closest to the customer (i.e. distributors, remote sales persons, agents, etc.). For these companies, not only is it important to have the right products at the right time, but also critical that they be at the right place. Collaborative forecasting tends to put a greater emphasis on the “right place” since, from a technical standpoint the forecasts are generally established at a “ship-to” location level. The main objective of collaborative forecasting is to integrate a remote sales force or distributors into a formal forecasting process in order to reduce short term customer inventory levels and improve distribution efficiency. </p>
<p class="text">Without a collaborative process, forecasting would be analogous to driving a car with both eyes looking into the rear-view mirror.</p>
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<p class="textsectiontitle"><a name="TotalMarket"></a>FUTURCAST Total Market Forecasting Solutions</p>
<p class="text">The primary function of <strong>Total Market Forecasting (TMF)</strong> is to develop a comprehensive picture of the future market including the forecasted shares of your own product and that of your competitors. In contrast to the product forecasting models, the market is clearly defined and close. It represents the sum of those products which have been assigned to constitute a specific market. The focus is on market share. Assumptions may grow the market, gain shares from others in the market, or act as a combination of both.</p>
<p class="text"><strong>FUTURCAST</strong> Total Market Forecasting solution applies the principles of assumption-based forecasting in order to allow for the systematic and detailed accounting of projected changes in the marketplace. Individual product assumptions become group product assumptions. These are automatically reversed to allow for shift in sales “to” and “from” products. What one gains must, in part, be lost by others. In doing so, the effects from the changes on both your own products and those of your competitors, and the overall market, are captured and clearly mapped. </p>
<p align="center"><img src="../images/graph3.jpg" alt="Creating a Common Language" width="397" height="329"></p>
<p class="text">Total Market Forecasting is the key to full operational forecasting integration. It creates, for healthcare companies, as represented in Figure 4, a common language between the functional areas which is linked to future assumptions or events. </p>
<p class="text">Monthly market shares are converted to gross monthly revenue dollars. These in turn, are then transformed into monthly ex-factory sales units. The derived ex-factory sales forecasts are then compared to the financial numbers in the budget and the later revisions having factored in rebates and discounts.</p>
<p class="text"><strong>Total Market Forecasting delivers clear advantages over Product Forecasting Solutions.</strong></p>
<p class="text"><strong>FUTURCAST</strong> Total Market Forecasting:</p>
<ul>
<li class="check">Imposes a reality check on all forecasts. Markets cannot grow to infinity.<br>
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</li>
<li class="check">Promotes the participation of product managers and marketing research; it forces collaborative market thinking.<br>
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</li>
<li class="check">Aligns forecasting activities with the elaboration and review of marketing strategies and/or initiatives.<br>
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</li>
<li class="check">Stores in a central data repository all internal supply chain, financial and external audit data that management can refer to and access in a consistent way.<br>
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</li>
<li class="check">Provides a common methodology for market share/growth analysis.<br>
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</li>
<li class="check">Offers a “one stop shop” explanation of the forecast.<br>
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<li class="check">Virtually eliminates Excel spreadsheets, avoiding “do, undo, and redo” exercises.</li>
</ul>
<p class="text">The diagram displayed in Figure 5 presents the local forecasting landscape under a <strong>FUTURCAST</strong> Total Market Forecasting solution.</p>
<p align="center"><img src="../images/graph4.jpg" alt="FUTURCAST Total Market Forecasting Local Landscape for Healthcare Companies" width="721" height="662"></p>]]>